今年世界货币基金组织年度会议上欧洲和国际组织对于欧洲该实行何种政策仍然是毫无方向。各国金融领导人从财政大臣到私营金融机构负责人都在重申当前的情况：风险国家必须要恢复房市秩序，减少赤字，降低债务负担，着手进行重组改革，加快经济增长。而且不止一遍的强调，要重建民众的信心。
鲜有听见各国央行的舵手们，财政大臣以及私人银行家们发出这样的倡议，同时也是他们这些人将财政系统导向了接近崩溃的边缘，造成了今天混乱的局面。更糟糕的是，他们似乎从来没有解释过要怎样来完成这件几乎无法完成的事。在经济一步步走向萧条的情况下，要怎么能够重建信心？财政紧缩几乎意味着消费需求下降，出口减少以及就业率下降，在这样的情况下经济又将该如何增长？
现在我们应该清楚：市场本身就是不稳定的。不仅是市场会经常产生可怕的资产泡沫，更重要的是，当消费需求下降，各种加剧恶化的力量都会蜂拥而来。失业以及害怕失业的恐惧，使得人们收入减少，消费支出也相应降低，这样总体需求就会下降。财政预算收支平衡的国家在税收降低的情况下，被迫降低支出，这个必然选择也成为欧洲各国的首选。
但还是有其他选择的。一些国家比如德国，有财政转移的余地。利用这些闲置的资金来投资，对于欧洲其他国家的长期发展还是有利的。一个长期被认可的规律就是提高税收以及增加支出都能够刺激经济发展。如果这个项目能够保证合理的设计（税收先行，辅以增加教育开支）那么GDP以及就业率都会有很大的增长。
This year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund made clear that Europe and the international community remain rudderless when it comes to economic policy. Financial leaders, from finance ministers to leaders of private financial institutions, reiterated the current mantra: the crisis countries have to get their houses in order, reduce their deficits, bring down their national debts, undertake structural reforms, and promote growth. Confidence, it was repeatedly said, needs to be restored.
It is a little precious to hear such pontifications from those who, at the helm of central banks, finance ministries, and private banks, steered the global financial system to the brink of ruin – and created the ongoing mess. Worse, seldom is it explained how to square the circle. How can confidence be restored as the crisis economies plunge into recession? How can growth be revived when austerity will almost surely mean a further decrease in aggregate demand, sending output and employment even lower?
This we should know by now: markets on their own are not stable. Not only do they repeatedly generate destabilizing asset bubbles, but, when demand weakens, forces that exacerbate the downturn come into play. Unemployment, and fear that it will spread, drives down wages, incomes, and consumption – and thus total demand. Decreased rates of household formation – young Americans, for example, are increasingly moving back in with their parents – depress housing prices, leading to still more foreclosures. States with balanced-budget frameworks are forced to cut spending as tax revenues fall – an automatic destabilizer that Europe seems mindlessly bent on adopting.
There are alternative strategies. Some countries, like Germany, have room for fiscal maneuver. Using it for investment would enhance long-term growth, with positive spillovers to the rest of Europe. A long-recognized principle is that balanced expansion of taxes and spending stimulates the economy; if the program is well designed (taxes at the top, combined with spending on education), the increase in GDP and employment can be significant.
