随着美国总统大选日渐临近，在脑海中始终保持一个观念还是很重要的：今年全球至少有60个国家将进行首脑选举，从法国到希腊，再到委内瑞拉等国家。中国尽管没有像其他国家一样有选举活动，但是在年中也会有一次领导人换届，从目前的胡锦涛过渡到下一届领导人习近平。这些都将会延缓全球投资速度。
伦敦商业学院的金融助理教授布兰登·胡里奥（Brandon Julio）与韩国成均馆大学教授Youngsuk Yook 专门研究政治不确定性对投资策略的影响力到底有多大。他们的研究结果表明，在大选之年，从阿根廷到津巴布韦，从大选开始到结束，期间的投资率会平均下降4.8%。（研究实例包含从1980年到2005年的大选情况。）4.8%并不能代表所有国家，动荡或者暴力的选举使得投资率会降得更低，而那些之前可预见选举结果的国家则相对要低一些。
那么今年的大选之年又将会怎样呢？在电话采访中，胡里奥表示，由于总统大选导致降低的4.8%的投资率会直接导致140万人失业。假设企业在大选过后，又继续增加就业岗位，那么这种失业情况会立即逆转。但是在各个国家急需增加投资的时候，各国的大选日程还是会如期进行。“这肯定会引起一场风暴。”胡里奥说。
As the U.S. presidential campaign grinds on, it’s important to keep the big picture in mind: More than 60 elections are scheduled around the world this year, from France to Greece to Venezuela and beyond. China, though technically not staging an election, is in the midst of a delicate transfer of political power from one president (Hu Jintao) to his presumed successor, Xi Jinping. That could lead to a substantial slowing of global investment.
Brandon Julio, assistant professor of finance at the London Business School, has studied the impact of political uncertainty on companies’ investment decisions, along with Youngsuk Yook of South Korea’s Sungkyunkwan University. Their examination of investment during election years in countries from Argentina to Zimbabwe found that investment rates drop by an average of 4.8 percent in the period leading up to an election. (The research covered elections from 1980 through 2005.) It’s not 4.8 percent across the board: Turbulent, violent elections drive investment rates down further, while countries with very predictable outcomes experience less of a drop in investment.
What about this highly political year? In a phone interview, Julio says he estimates that a 4.8 percent pre-electoral drop in investment around the world could result in the loss of 1.4 million jobs. Assuming companies get the certainty they were seeking after the many elections are held, job losses would be quickly reversed. Still, the election-heavy calendar comes when many countries need as much investment as possible. “It’s a perfect storm,” says Julio.
