日本经过去年3月份的地震以及核污染年之后，目前日本股市出现好转迹象。根据由彭博通讯社收集的2600多名分析师的分析，日本225股票平均数中的大盘股公司今年的收益将要达到69%。日本共同基金管理ING的投资经理人Masafumi Oshiden表示，在盈利上，日本已经遭遇到了太多的低谷。目前消费者支出在不断增加，公司盈利也在上升。震后的谨慎情绪已经减退。
投资人赌定这种利润预期会实现的。根据彭博通讯社收集的数据，统计中的24.5次交易中，日本的股票在全球60多家交易所中，价格是最高的。如果像分析家预计的那样，利润回升，日本的市盈率也会下降，跟全球股市保持一致。
对市场行情看好的人士表示，目前日本的股价是非常公正的，因为经济复苏会让日本能够收复一些从2009年3月开始失去的失地。
自从那时起，日经指数上涨了35%，而摩根全球指数上涨89%和标普500指数上涨104，这个数字显然微不足道。原因之一：东京政策制定者致力于花费20万亿日元重建城镇，刺激经济发展。日本银行行长白川方名4月份在纽约发表演讲中提到，建议政府投放更多额钱来刺激经济发展。
悲观者认为，结合索尼和夏普损失的9000亿日元，以及日本在过去四年里有三年都出现经济萎缩的现象，现在说日经指数有上涨趋势还为时过早。日本仍然要面临着不断减少的人口规模，而且还背负着世界上最重的债务。AMP Capital投资公司负责人Shane Oliver表示，如本股票还面临着许多不确定因素 。其中之一就是通过紧缩，这不利于刺激消费，而且对公司利润也有影响。另一个因素就是不断增强的日元，实际上这是在压制经济增长和竞争力。日元升值使得日本产品在国外更贵，抑制了出口业务。
After plunging in the aftermath of last year’s earthquake and nuclear disaster, Japanese stocks may be poised for a comeback. Profits for the large-cap companies in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will rise 69 percent this year after plunging 31 percent in 2011, according to more than 2,600 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. “The worst is over for Japan in terms of earnings,” says Masafumi Oshiden, an investment manager at ING Mutual Funds Management (Japan). “Consumer spending is improving and corporate earnings are rebounding. The cautious mood following the quake is gone.”
Investors are betting the profit forecasts will turn out to be accurate. Trading at 24.5 times reported earnings, Japanese equities are the most expensive among the world’s 60 biggest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. If profits rebound as analysts forecast, Japanese price-earnings ratios will fall back in line with global stocks.
Bulls say the current high valuations are justified because an economic recovery will help Japanese stocks make up some of the ground they have lost to other major equity gauges since global markets bottomed on March 9, 2009. The Nikkei 225 is up 35 percent since then, compared with 89 percent for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and 104 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. One reason: Policy makers in Tokyo have committed to spend 20 trillion yen ($246 billion) to rebuild towns and spur economic growth. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pledged during a speech in New York in April to continue adding monetary stimulus.
Pessimists point to combined annual losses from Sony (SNE) and Sharp of 900 billion yen and an economy that has contracted three of the past four years as evidence the Nikkei 225 has come too far, too fast. Japan still faces a shrinking population and the world’s highest debt burden. “There are several drags on Japanese shares,” says Shane Oliver, the Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors. “One of them is ongoing deflation, which acts as a disincentive to spending and is also a huge constraint on company profits. The other is a relatively strong yen, which is actually a drag on growth and competitiveness.” A strong yen makes Japanese products more expensive abroad, inhibiting exports.
