移动网络瘫痪。而且是大范围的。本周在坦帕的Breaking Devolopment 会议上，许多网站开发的精英人士针对消失的应用编程接口，未响应图片和超长的下载时间，都各自发表了看法。
马克·安德森所说的那样，软件将会吞噬整个世界，在互联网上，应用程序正在吞噬着内容。“内容才是王道”，似的，我们首先需要考虑内容，但是越来越多的人都在是在通过应用程序来消化这些内容的。
所以，这就像是我所说的那样，这是移动网络上HTML5公开标准之下发布的应用程序与 iOS, Android 和 Windows Phone上的本地应用程序之间的生死决战。未来的潮流应该更倾向于HTML5，因为随着各种应用程序越来越复杂和碎片化，维护这些不同代码基地的成本也是非常高的，不管是在金钱上还是在时间上。
但是，这里有一个摩擦，事实上是两个。在许多领域，HTML5应用程序的速度比本级应用要慢，而且，在某种情况下，还不是慢一点点。在移动世界里，速度优化就是游戏的代名词，看看Instagram和Tango的成功经历就知道了，它们两个都是本机程序。最重要的是，移动浏览器对许多重要的主题都不提供API支持设备，尤其是摄像头的链接。
正如我上周所预言的那样，Facebook并购Instagram是想在等待HTML5提升性能的同时，在分享照片上保持一种竞争优势，他们可能要等待很长时间。
这也是象棋类比的出处。如果发展互联网像三维象棋像纸质的二维象棋发展，那么移动事业则像是四维象棋。但是事实证明，Facebook，苹果和谷歌是将这场竞争发展到了HTMIL5的象棋竞争中。我的意思是：
自从Facebook去年推出HTML5应用平台以来，他们就将大部分赌注压在了开放网络上。他们研发了一个非常复杂的HTML5测试包，命名为Ringmark，而且将它作为开放源码发布出去了。它们在网络应用上的流量比本机应用上的流量要多两倍，这似乎成为了这个方法的一个佐证。但是，只有你忽略了这些公司盈利之后所覆盖的东西，那么进入HTML5的方法才变得特别简单。
当前，苹果和谷歌在任意收入中都有30%的份额，包括嵌入式程序的购买，也就是通过应用商店购买的程序。但是消费者竟然非常愿意去花1美元购买一个或者五个应用程序，而不是同等数量某个具有同样功能网站的访问权限
Facebook追逐HTML5的动机在于苹果和谷歌都想在跟普通游戏市场一样，在移动应用市场也占到30%的份额。Facebook是有这样的历史，而且用户的最终利益也是站在他们这一边的，但是Facebook和它的竞争对手一样，也是追求商业利益的。
Ringmark利用0-3环的方式来定义移动浏览器的功能，随着它的发布，Facebook在敦促研发者研发能够在优先顺序上达成一致。而这也是移动浏览器厂商苹果，谷歌和微软要做的事情。为了达到这个目的，他们委派Mobile Developer Relations的负责人James Pearce向各位研发者做题为《标准化设备和网络API所能提供的真正可能性和机遇》演讲，当然也包括出席Breaking Development会议的研发者。目的在于要说服这些人相信我们想做成丰富，有内容，社会化网站的愿望和梦想都放在了他们身上。
The mobile web is broken. Big time. This week at the Breaking Development Conference in Tampa, some of the smartest minds in web development gave presentation after presentation about missing APIs, unresponsive images and load times from hell.
Just as Marc Andreessen has said that “Software Will Eat the World,” on the web, applications are eating content. “Content is king,” yes, and we need to think about “content first,” but increasingly people are consuming content through applications.
So, as I have said, there is a showdown between open standards HTML5 for delivering applications on the mobile web and native apps for iOS, Android and Windows Phone. The flow of the future would seem to be going the way of HTML5, because as the device landscape gets more complicated and fractured, the cost of maintaing all of those different code bases becomes prohibitive, both in terms of time and money.
But, there’s a rub, in fact two. For the most part, HTML5 apps are slower than native apps, and in some cases, significantly so. In the world of mobile, optimizing for speed is the name of the game—see the success of Instagram and Tango, both native apps. And on top of that, mobile browsers do not provide device API support for many important features—especially the ability to access the camera.
As I speculated last week, Facebook’s Instagram buy is an attempt to maintain a competitive advantage in photo sharing through whatever means necessary while they wait for the HTML5 situation to improve. They may be waiting for a long time.
This is where the chess analogy comes in. If developing for the web is like three-dimensional chess to print’s two dimensions, then developing for mobile is like four-dimensional chess. But it turns out that the rivalry between Facebook, Apple and Google is turning this into HTML5-dimensional chess. Here’s what I mean:
Since Facebook launched its HTML5 application platform last year, they have placed major bets on the open web. They have developed a sophisticated HTML5 testing suite, called Ringmark, and released the code as open source. That they have twice as much traffic on their web app then on their native apps would seem to be a vindication of this approach. But the path to HTML5 apps is simple only if you ignore the important overlay of how these companies get paid.
Right now, Apple and Google get a 30% slice of any revenues, including in-app purchases, that run through their app stores. And consumers have shown a surprising willingness to pay a dollar or five for an app, but not the equivalent amount for access to a website that performs the same functions.
Facebook’s motivation for pursuing HTML5 is to play an end-around Apple and Google in the application market the way they have with their 30% take on the credits in the casual game market. Facebook may have the flow of history, and the ultimate best interests of their users on their side, but they are as commercially motivated as their opponents.
Along with releasing Ringmark, which defines mobile browser capabilities interms of a series of rings from zero to three with increasing levels of functionality, Facebook is courting developers to build “consensus” on “priorities” that the mobile browser makers, Apple, Google and now Microsoft, should build for. To that end, they have dispatched James Pearce, Head of Mobile Developer Relations, to present to developers, including those at Breaking Developement, “The real possibilities and opportunities that standardized device and network APIs can offer.” The goal is to convince them that, “Our hopes and dreams for a rich, contextual, social web will depend on them.”
