黄金和中国市场都进入了熊市，但是我们相信黄金和中国市场都还有很大的空间可以操作。
黄金市场的短期对手
不断升高的债券利率，美元持续增强，美国经济好转，这些都消除了实施第三轮量化宽松货币政策的可能性，其直接结果是为黄金市场惹来了麻烦。自从2月底，黄金价格下降至少7%。3月26日，当美联储主席伯南克对经济学家说明，目前美国的经济还有些疲弱，不能够采取特殊的货币政策时，黄金价格瞬时出现了上涨的迹象。
随着市场信心增强，美国银行表示，黄金正在丧失作为安全港和风险资产的双重身份。黄金正在从舞台中央退去，而增长性资产正在逐步走向台前。早在本月月初，出现了自2004年以来纽约证券交易所每周最大的黄金价格缩水。
黄金市场也不是一无是处。在最近一期的Gold Monitor，首席经济学家Dundee Wealth列举出了黄金市场的10大有利因素，其中之一就是货币再膨胀。我们现在经历的资金流动量是历史最大规模的资金流动。根据ISI集团统计，在过去的7个月中，世界各地的中央银行共计出台了122项刺激经济发展的政策。
当我们看到全球经济有复苏的景象时，还必须要记住非常重要的一点，这种复苏是建立在印制的成堆的钞票的基础上的，而且这种方式造成的伤害是很难愈合的。钱不是凭空就能长出来的，要么是从政府里借来的，要么就是由中央银行印制的。
这也是为什么我们相信黄金市场的熊市还会继续下去。
中国市场的过度反应
中国经济发展速度放缓，以及必和必拓集团对中国消费需求的不乐观展望，都让投资者十分担心。
由于国内和国外需求减少，中国3月份的PMI指数比上个月减少了3%。
然而，有专家表示，中国的状况并没有那么差。在过去的两个月中，中国相对强劲的消费需求对全球的物价产生了积极影响。但是由于中国不断紧缩的国内政策以及减少的出口增长，中国的经济增长还是会出现一定的缓慢，这样一来，对商品需求的影响可以忽略不计了。
中国经济发展的亮点还是很容易就能找到的。巴克莱斯发表报告声明表示，自从2005年的1月份开始，制造业的未结清单每个月都在增长。受石油需求的影响，中国的石油需求在2月份达到了历史最高水平。
尽管由于油价上涨北京在2月份的物价水平上涨了4%。中国的石油需求还是在继续增长。中国政府表示，在3月初，中国的物价又上涨了7%。2012年2月份，中国的汽车销量同比去年上涨了24%，这是自从2010年11月份以来，涨幅最大的一次。
油价高涨只会对中国的消费者产生有限的影响，因为只有一少部分人是直接接触无资金补助的石油。中国的燃料价格只占CPI的2%，而美国的则占5.4%。
同时，我们也看到中国在某一行业的迅速发展，而这一行业也是中国消费者脆弱的地方。那就是房地产。根据法国里昂证券和中国国家统计局统计，中国有27个城市的房价在2月份都出现了跌落趋势，这是去年12月份的3倍。另外，跟踪调查的70个城市中，房屋价格上涨幅度不超过5%。价格逐渐下降正是政府为防止房市崩溃而需要的。但是不要指望政府会让房价无限制的跌下去。
记住中国购房者的房贷是房价的30%。剩下的60%都需要交付现金。如果房价继续下跌，那么在今年夏天，政府将会出台更为严厉的房产政策。
Gold and China are two areas that have been caught in the bear trap, but we believe the gold and China bulls still have room to run.
Short-Term Challenges for Gold
Rising bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and an improving U.S. economy have squelched expectations for a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and consequently, spelled trouble for gold. Since late February, gold declined more than 7 percent through the end of last week. The GLD got a bump higher on Monday when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a group of economists that the U.S. economy was still too weak to remove extraordinary monetary policy.
As confidence improves, UBS says the yellow metal is losing the dual role of safe haven and risk asset: “Gold is moving off center stage, while growth assets are moving to the fore.” Earlier this month, we saw the largest weekly contraction in long gold positions on the Comex since 2004.
All is not lost for gold. In his latest Gold Monitor, Dundee Wealth Economics Chief Economist Martin Murenbeeld lists 10 positive factors for gold, one of which is monetary reflation. We are currently experiencing one of the greatest global liquidity booms the world has ever seen. Over the past seven months, there have been 122 stimulative policy initiatives from central banks around the world, according to ISI Group.
While we are seeing strong signs of improvement in the global economy, it’s important to remember that the recovery has been built upon a mountain of printed money that cannot be hastily unwound. Dr. Murenbeeld explains, “Money doesn’t grow on trees; it will have to be borrowed by some government and/or it will have to be printed by some central bank.”
This is why we believe the bull market for gold remains intact.
Overreaction on China
Indication of a Chinese economic slowdown and negative comments fromBHP Billiton regarding its outlook for Chinese demand caused anxiety for investors.
The March HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell 3 points from the previous month due to weakening domestic and external demand.
However,Experts says, “It’s not that bad out there.” The firm’s research shows that relatively strong demand fromChinaduring the first two months of the year has had a positive impact on global commodity prices.Macquariesays, “While there is undoubtedly a slowdown taking place in Chinese economic growth as a result of domestic policy tightening and weaker export growth, the impact on commodities demand has been negligible.”
Bright spots in China’s economy aren’t hard to find. Barclays reports that the backlog of manufacturing orders saw its largest month-over-month increase since 2005 from January to February of this year. Supported by an all-time high in gasoline demand, Chinese oil demand reached a record high in February.
Gasoline demand was resilient despite Beijing hiking prices by 4 percent in February due to higher oil prices. The Chinese government followed that up with an additional 7 percent hike earlier this month. Auto sales increased nearly 24 percent year-over-year (13 percent sequentially) in February, the largest increase since November 2010, according to UBS.
higher fuel prices will only modestly impact Chinese consumers because few come in direct contact with unsubsidized gasoline. Andy estimates that fuel accounts for only 2 percent ofChina’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, compared to 5.4 percent in theU.S.
We’re also seeing positive developments in an area where Chinese consumers are vulnerable—housing prices. According to CLSA and China’s National Bureau of Statistics, home prices fell in 27 cities on a year-over-year basis during February, three times the volume in December. In addition, none of the 70 cities tracked reported more than a 5 percent increase in new home prices. A gradual reduction in home prices is exactly what the country needs to prevent a major housing crash, but don’t expect the Chinese government to let the bottom fall out.
Remember, the minimum cash down payment for a Chinese home buyer with a mortgage is 30 percent. Investors are required to put 60 percent down in cash. The government is poised to relax the country’s strict housing policy measures as soon as this summer if the decline accelerates.
