出口减少和房地产控制政策给中国经济带来的影响让中国经济的增长速度直接降至2009年以来的最低点。然而，经济的衰退并没打击中国消费者的信心。
中国国家统计局（China's National Bureau of Statistics）上周公布的数据显示，与去年同期相比，中国2012年一季度的GDP增长率下降至8.1%，低于此前预计的8.4%。这一数据引发了国际市场的担忧，它们担心这个世界上发展最快的国家，消费需求正在趋于疲软。
但是，还是有好消息：中国政府和家庭消费表现活跃，相比过去十年平均贡献率只有41.6%，今年第一季度中国政府及家庭消费对GDP的贡献率达到了76%。因为中国长期以来一直被称为储蓄国，这个数据着实令人吃惊。
确实，消费的大幅增长反映了出口和投资的下滑。多年来，国际市场对中国产品和服务的需求促进了中国经济的发展。但是，自全球金融危机爆发以来，中国的出口就已经呈现出放缓的趋势。欧洲是中国最大的出口市场，而欧洲的债务危机尚未见底，因此中国出口的前景依然惨淡。至于投资，中国在基础设施方面的支出几乎占到经济的一半。经济学界和官方都指出，这一比例将难以为继。
为了降低贸易顺差，中国经常设定目标，要求实现增长的再平衡，鼓励公民减少储蓄，扩大消费。这并不是说中国不久就能实现这个目标，但是上周公布的GDP数据显示，中国或许已经取得了初步进展。即使没有取得进展，至少也说明中国国内消费的局势很稳健。
当然，中国消费者的消费能力一部分要归功于他们苛刻的储蓄习惯，而中国政府尝试通过“十二五”规划（2011－15年）改变这种习惯。麦肯锡咨询公司（McKinsey & Company'）公布的2011年中国消费者年度调查显示，中国消费者通常把收入的三分之一用于储蓄，而在美国，这一数据仅为4.4%。
但是，现在即使中国经济增速放缓，消费者仍然保持着非常乐观的态度。这是因为，“十二五”规划要求最低工资每年至少增长13%，地方政府通过提高工资水平，刺激国内消费。
今年年初，中国两大主要城市北京和深圳均提高了最低工资水平。第一季度，城镇实际工资与去年相比增长了9.8%，而农村地区的工资同比增长了12.7%。过去两年中，全国工资已经增长了22%。
但是，在工资上涨的同时，物价也在迅速上涨。因此，如果不是因为通货膨胀的因素，工资增长产生的额外消费原本应更高。虽然如此，大多数中国人认为工资未来仍会继续上涨，所以消费依然保持了稳定。麦肯锡咨询公司的调查显示，2010年接受调查的消费者中，39%的人预计，工资在未来一年将出现增长，而2011年58%的受访消费者都认为涨薪在即。
总部位于上海的中国市场研究集团（China Market Research Group）总经理肖恩•赖因指出，如果将全国各地的数十万家小型餐厅和商店计算在内，家庭实际消费将远远超过统计数字。这是因为，地方政府往往使用预先估值而不是实际的销售额实施协商征税，结果造成小型餐厅和商店的销售额被大幅低估。
廉价中国的终结：颠覆世界的经济和文化趋势》（The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that will Disrupt the World）一书作者赖恩表示：“眼下的中国消费者信心十足。”
中国的消费势头的确强劲，但若要让消费者放心地增加消费，中国政府依然任重而道远。虽然中国的“十二五”规划目标远大，既包括增加对就业的重视程度，又包括加大对社会安全保障的投入，但最终效果究竟如何还是取决于这些政策措施有没有被真正落到实处。
China's economy is growing at its weakest pace since 2009, as slumping exports and measures to cool the property market weigh on the economy. But that's not dragging down consumers.
GDP decelerated to 8.1% during the first three months of 2012, compared with a year earlier, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics last week. The growth was lower than the 8.4% that analysts expected, fueling concerns in international markets about weakening demand in the world's fastest-growing large economy.
But there was one bright spot: Spending by households and government proved resilient, contributing to 76% of GDP – up from an average of 41.6% during the past decade. This is particularly surprising, given that China has long been known as a nation of savers.
True, the rise largely reflects the drop in exports and investments. China's goods and services sold abroad have driven its economy for years, but that has slowed since the global financial crisis. And the outlook remains bleak as the debt crisis in Europe, China's biggest export market, sees little end in sight. As for investments, what China spends on infrastructure and the like accounts for almost half of its economy – a level many economists and officials have said can't continue.
To narrow its trade surplus, China's oft-stated goal has been to rebalance growth so that its citizens save less and spend more. Not to say that China today is anywhere close to achieving that, but last week's GDP data suggests that perhaps tentative progress has been made. If not that, then it at least speaks to the steadiness of the Chinese consumer.
Of course, part of the resilience of China's consumers comes from their rigid saving habits, which the Chinese government has been trying to reverse under its five-year plan for 2011-15. On average, they save one-third of their incomes, compared with 4.4% in the U.S., according to McKinsey & Company's 2011 annual Chinese consumer survey.
But even as the Chinese economy slows, consumers appear quite optimistic. This comes as local governments push wages higher in efforts to boost consumption at home, as part of the five-year plan to raise the minimum wage at least 13% annually. Earlier this year, two of China's leading cities, Beijing and Shenzen, raised minimum wages. During the first quarter, urban real wages rose 9.8% from a year earlier, while wages in rural areas rose 12.7% during the same period. And for the past two years, wages grew 22% nationwide.
However, higher wages have been met with rapidly rising prices. So the extra spending that the pay bumps would have generated could have been higher if not for inflation. Nevertheless, consumption has stayed steady as most Chinese think wages will rise further in the future. Whereas 39% of consumers in 2010 said they expect their incomes to rise in the next year, 58% surveyed in 2011 said they see higher pay in the horizon, according to McKinsey.
If we take into account the hundreds of thousands of smaller restaurants and shops that dot across the country, households are spending markedly more than statistics would suggest, says Shaun Rein, managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group. This is because sales at such businesses are often grossly underreported, since local governments often negotiate tax payments on sales upfront using an estimate rather than basing it on actual transactions.
"The Chinese consumer is extremely confident right now," says Rein, author of The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that will Disrupt the World.
Chinese demand is certainly robust. But there's still plenty Beijing needs to do to make consumers feel comfortable with spending more. And while China's five-year plan includes everything from a greater focus on jobs to more funding of social safety nets, it remains to be seen how the plan gets implemented.
