下周二苹果将发布2012财年第二财季的财报，华尔街预测苹果上一季度总共售出约3200-3300万部智能手机。尽管这已经不是个小数目，但离苹果公司原定的季度销售目标相差得可不是一点。
ACI研究公司分析师Edward Zabitsk在研究中断言，三星一季度智能手机销售总量将超过4000万部，可一举摘得全球智能手机销量第一的桂冠。
Edward Zabitsk还称，苹果以后还要继续面对来自三星的持续竞争。他说5月3号三星将发布其Galaxy S3系列手机，这是三星旗舰智能手机的最新版本。他称这款手机将包含一个名叫Exynos 4412的内部开发多核处理器，以及三星自己生产的LTE/WCDMA基频处理器和低功率视网膜Super AMOLED+显示器。
Zabitsky被认为是分析师社区中最敢说苹果真话的一个分析师，他坚持认为智能手机领域成本最低的生产商是三星，而不是苹果。Zabitsky认为苹果的购买力与三星并驾齐驱——但同时他也指出三星的每部高端Galaxy智能机，自己设计和生产的部分可达60-80美元，而苹果的iPhone 4S手机自己设计的部分大概只占25元。他还称“三星的显示器、处理器和内存由公司内部提供，因此，生产一部手机的附加成本相较苹果也更低”。
华尔街中不相信Zabitsky所说的大有人在，这些人认为Zabitsky的观点早已过时。但是，有一点Zabitsky却说得很对，那便是苹果在智能手机市场上真正的敌人不是别人，正是三星。目前的智能手机市场，RIM和诺基亚还在边缘挣扎，HTC近期的发展遇到重重阻碍，因此，从长远来看，全球智能手机霸主地位的角逐只可能在苹果和三星这两个巨头之间进行。这两家公司都以全球专利诉讼作为武器，随时准备给对方迎头一棒。与此同时，苹果至今还一直是三星最大的客户之一，从三星购买存储芯片、显示器和其他元部件。我说这些并没有完全赞同Zabitsky的意思，但他有一个观点我同意，那便是，对苹果来说，三星的确是一个不好对付的竞争对手。
Next Tuesday, Apple will report results for the March quarter. The Street is expecting the company to sell in the vicinity of 32-33 million iPhones for the quarter. That’s a lot of smartphones. But it might not be anywhere close enough to make the company the calendar Q1 smartphone champion.
ACI Research analyst Edward Zabitsky asserts in a research note that Samsung in the quarter sold over 40 million smartphones, grabbing the title of global smartphone unit king.
And the competition from Samsung, the analyst asserts, continues to intensify. He notes that the company on May 3 will launch the Galaxy S3, the latest edition of its flagship smartphone, which he thinks will include an internally developed quad core processor called the Exynos 4412, their own LTE/WCDMA baseband processor, and a retina quality, low-power Super AMOLED+ display, also made by Samsung.
Zabitsky, who might be the one true bear on Apple in the analyst community, contends that Samsung, and not Apple, is the low-cost producer in smartphones. He says that Apple’s purchasing power is matched by Samsung – but he notes that Samsung designs and manufactures $60-$80 of components in every high-end Galaxy phone, while Apple designs about $25 of the components in the iPhone 4S. He notes that “Samsung’s internally sourced displays, processors, and memory require a low incremental cost to produce.”
There are some on the Street who don’t always listen to Zabitsky; they view him, his Sell rating and his $270 price target the way you might look at a guy in a white robe and long beard walking around with a sign that reads “The End Is Near.” But in this case he has a point, which is that the real enemy for Apple in the smartphone market is Samsung. With RIM and Nokia struggling to remain relevant in the smartphone market, and HTC stumbling in recent quarters, in the long run the battle for supremacy in mobile phones could come down to two behemoths: Apple vs. Samsung. The companies are already in the process of trying to bash each other’s brains in with patent litigation around the globe. Apple meanwhile is among Samsung’s largest customers, buying memory chips, displays and other components. I’m not saying Zabitsky is right on the stock. But he has a point here: Samsung is a formidable rival.
