3月16日苹果推出iPad3，这也是目前平板电脑市场上最受欢迎的一款产品。发售后仅4天，就卖出了300万台。论坛上有许多买家都表示这种销售趋势还有升温的可能。同样的说法，也适用于苹果的股票。
过去几年中，苹果的股价上涨了83%，而在2012年，几乎上涨了50%。苹果公司目前市值达5650亿美元，从市值上讲，理所当然的成为世界第一大公司。苹果公司的市值要高于埃克森美孚，它的市值仅是4080亿美元。自从今年年初开始，苹果的市值又增加了1870亿美元，这个数字几乎是相当于宝洁，强生和富国银行的全部市值 。而苹果公司的市值是美国零售业市值的总额。
苹果公司占去标普500企业中4.54%的价值，而在全球市场中，占据1.1%。一些银行分析家在通报美国公司营业收入时，开始将苹果排除在外，因为如果将它包含进来，那么分析结果将会变形。根据美国银行的统计，2011年第四季度，标普500公司的营业收入同比去年增长了6.7%，但是如果将苹果公司去除在外，只有3.6%。
全球范围内大概有1/3的对冲基金都购买了苹果公司的股票，包括一些大公司比如塞克资本（SAC Capital）和美国绿光集团（Greenlight）。其中有些对公司还下了很大的赌注。埃及私募股权公司Citadel持有苹果公司51亿美元的股票，占其总资产的12%。许多对冲基金在过去几年里表现出色，很大一部分原因都是来自于苹果公司。
苹果公司股价大涨，不仅激发了股东的投资热情，更是为整个股票市场带来了希望。今年标普500收益上涨10%，纳斯达克100上涨39%，这其中都有苹果的功劳。测评机构标准普尔的Howard Silverblatt表示，从来没有哪一只股票能够对指数股票产生如此大的影响。
股价持续上涨。3月20日，在苹果宣布将拿出一部分资金储备作为季度分红，并且用100亿美元回购公司股票，就在当天苹果的股价涨到了605.96美元。这是17年来，苹果公司首次分红。以前没有投资苹果的分红型基金现在有可能会加大购买力，这还会将苹果股价拉高。
大部分的分析人士仍然坚守苹果公司的股票。一些人表示，苹果公司的市值达到1万亿美元都是有可能的。苹果公司在PC和智能手机市场上的渗透率非常低，但是他可以在中国和巴西的市场中，拥有百万名用户。尽管乔布斯离世之后，人们怀疑苹果公司的创新能力到底还有多少，但是iPad3的发售让人们的紧张情绪放松了许多。苹果将要进入到一个全新的领域比如电视和手机支付。
苹果拥有足够的资金用于投资开发新产品，避开可能出现的风险。数据分析公司Horace Dediu of Asymco推测，尽管苹果今年又是分红又是回购股票，但是截止到2012年年底还会有350亿美元的盈余。如果按照22%的市盈率，那么股票的收益，可能并不如想象中的诱人，但是如果收益率是根据未来公司盈利计算的话，就是另一番景象了。根据摩根士丹利的报告，苹果的收入在2012财年将会增长51%，2013年增长23%。
也有一些人认为，苹果公司未来的前景并不是将苹果股价拉升的唯一因素。目前苹果股价急剧上升，许多投资者都没有足够的钱来增持苹果股票。基金经理人的判断标准也正是衡量苹果的重要性的标准，那就是标普500和纳斯达克100.这种行动之迅速以及公司的规模将许多人都吓跑了。其风险是，每个人最终不是想去买苹果的股票，而是说他们是非买不可。
一些人在担心苹果是不是正在向泡沫经济方向发展。苹果的市盈率比科技泡沫时期要小得多。但是也有一种观点认为，苹果股票的短期利率很少。根据彭博通讯社消息，在跟踪苹果股票的54为分析家中，只有一个卖出的。耶鲁经济学家Robert Shiller称，对于苹果传奇故事的喜爱以及对股市的狂热，使得公司的股票与科技泡沫时期非常相像。你可以去玩这种泡沫，因为这可能还没有结束。但是我是不会把钱投到苹果的股票上去的。
即使这种泡沫呼声越来越高，但是只要苹果的盈利能够满足预期收益，那么再高的股价也是合理的。而这通常很难。市场上领头公司的股票当股价达到顶峰时，就会表现不佳，因为这样的公司通常对监管和媒体没有太多的抵抗能力。要继续这种增长形势更是难上加难。即使是股价受益的一个小落差，都会对股价造成十分严重的影响，因为如今苹果公司的投资者都是非常脆弱的。
如果营业收入下降，那么将会引发一连串的反应。科技投资者，尤其是持有苹果公司大量股票的股东，是十分脆弱的。苹果占PowerShares QQQ（拥有很多科技股票的指数型股票基金）的18%。更危险的是那些偏离初衷购买很多苹果股票的基金，包括那些主要目标是小公司的互惠基金。如果苹果有任何动摇的话，那么整个市场都会发生变化。
对冲基金则是最大的输家。现在看来苹果股价上升，他们增持苹果股份很明智，但是如果苹果营业收入下降，他们的行为就不是什么明智之举了。
THE new iPad, which was released on March 16th, is the most popular version of the tablet yet. Apple sold 3m of them in just four days. But some buyers took to discussion forums to report that it has a tendency to heat up. A similar debate exists about Apple’s stock.
The company’s share price has risen by 83% in the past year, and by almost 50% so far in 2012. Apple is now easily the largest company in the world by market capitalisation, at some $565 billion. It looms over Exxon Mobil, which is worth a mere $408 billion. Since the start of this year it has added $187 billion to its valuation, roughly equivalent to the entire market caps of companies like Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Wells Fargo. Apple is larger than the American retail sector combined.
It accounts for 4.5% of the S&P 500 and 1.1% of the global equity market . Some bank analysts have started to report America’s corporate earnings without Apple, because including the firm so skews results. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have risen by 6.7% from the prior year for companies in the S&P 500, but by a much more modest 3.6% if Apple is excluded, according to UBS.
Around a third of all hedge funds own it, including big names like SAC Capital and Greenlight. Some have made very big bets. Many hedge funds that have done well in the past year owe much to this single position.
The stock’s gains this year have not only boosted the spirits of shareholders but also brightened the whole equity market. Apple is responsible for more than 10% of the S&P 500’s rise this year , and for 39% of the NASDAQ 100’s gains. No other stock has ever grown to have such a significant impact on an index so quickly, says Howard Silverblatt of Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency.
The share price keeps soaring. On March 20th, a day after Apple announced it would use some of its cash hoard (estimated at $97.6 billion at the end of 2011) on a quarterly dividend and a $10 billion share buy-back, its shares closed at a record high of $605.96. This is the first time in 17 years that Apple will pay a dividend. Dividend funds, which had not considered investing in Apple before, could pile in, potentially pushing the price higher still.
Most analysts remain committed fans of the shares. Some claim that a $1 trillion valuation could soon be possible. The bullish case runs as follows. Apple has low penetration in the personal-computer and smartphone markets, and can hook millions more customers in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Although questions remain over how much of Apple’s innovation was due to its magician-in-chief, Steve Jobs, who died last October, the launch of the new iPad has calmed nerves somewhat. Apple is poised to enter new arenas like television and mobile payments.
The firm still has a ton of cash to invest in new products and ward off emerging threats. Horace Dediu of Asymco, a data-analysis firm, has estimated that even after the dividend payout and any buy-back activity this year, Apple could still end 2012 with over $35 billion more in the bank than it had at the end of the previous year. With an historic price-earnings (p/e) ratio of 22, shares are not as dear as you might expect, and look even more attractive when the p/e is calculated based on forward earnings. Apple’s revenues are forecast to grow by at least 51% in fiscal-year 2012 and by 23% in 2013, according to Morgan Stanley.
Others reckon that the outlook for its business is not the only thing that has been driving the steep ascent of Apple’s shares. The stock has seen such heavy gains in recent weeks that many investors can’t afford not to have Apple in their portfolio. Fund managers that are judged against a benchmark where Apple is heavily weighted, like the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P 500 technology index, have to scramble to keep a heavy exposure to Apple. “The speed of the move and the size of the company scare people who haven’t got it,” says Andy Ash of Monument Securities. “The danger is that you end up with everyone buying it because they have to rather than because they want to.”
Some wonder whether the stock is headed into bubble territory. Apple’s p/e is much lower than that of stocks in the dot-com bubble; America Online’s was a ridiculous 154 in 1999. But contrarian thinking is thin on the ground. There is very little short interest in Apple. “Call” options, which give the right to buy Apple stock, are much more expensive than “puts”, which give the right to sell the stock, says Mark Sebastian of Option Pit, a consultancy. Of the 54 analysts who track Apple stock, only one has a sell rating, according to Bloomberg. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and author of “Irrational Exuberance”, reckons that the “emotional attachment” to the Apple story and “wild” enthusiasm about its stock are reminiscent of a bubble. “You could play the bubble, because it might not be over yet, but I wouldn’t put money in Apple stock,” he says.
Even if bubble talk is over the top, a higher share price is justified only if Apple continues to meet earnings expectations. That usually gets harder. The stocks of market-leading companies historically underperform once they have reached the top slot, since they are less nimble and more vulnerable to attacks by regulators and the press. It is harder to continue impressive earnings growth on a large base. Even a modest earnings miss could have a big effect on the share price, since more of Apple’s shareholders today are fickle traders.
If there was a fall, it would ripple. Technology investors, which have a higher concentration of Apple in their portfolios, are the most vulnerable. Apple makes up more than 18% of PowerShares QQQ, an exchange-traded fund with heavy exposure to technology stocks, for example. More unsettling are funds that have strayed into buying Apple against their mandate, including some mutual funds that are supposed to focus on smaller companies. “If Apple has a wobble, you could see it dictate broader market movements,” says Alec Levine of Newedge, a broker.
Hedge funds could be among the biggest losers. They look clever now for buying a stock that has seen such a rise, but they will look dumb if they lose money when it falls.
