最近互联网数据中心（IDC）有关移动应用的调查显示，安卓的开发呈现新的趋势。开发人员不再像去年一样对谷歌的移动操作系统平台那么感兴趣。但是仍然有79%的开发人员热衷于开发安卓智能手机，因为还有4/5的人在盯着山景城的代码，IDC的调查中早就有迹象可能会对2012和2013产生影响。说这些对于阻止谷歌使得安卓系统变质有重要作用。当然依靠APP的独立开发人员也要小心商业计划中的痛苦点。
那些碎片
关于大众手中不同的安卓版本已经被大肆议论。但是并不仅仅是OS。并没有一致的软件工具开发包，有六种屏幕尺寸可供选择，混合了不同的纵横比例，不同的硬件按钮，键盘或者是触摸屏，当然你也可以将这些都融入到同一个代码分支或者是采用不同的版本。如果回报够丰厚的话，那么将安卓系统这些零部件用于不同的平台还是很不错的，但是事实并不是这样的。
投资后的回报
这仿佛已经成为了一个定理，安卓的应用程序整体上都不如苹果系统的应用程序赚钱。这可能是更多的人喜欢买苹果的手机而不是说应用程序的质量问题（安卓每个月都要做很多预算或者是卖出很多预付手机），但是上面所提到的这些细节，却只有很少的回报。当开发者仅有有限的时间和资源时，就需要选择一个平台，而安装的基础并不重要，重要的是你有没有钱。
克隆应用程序的容量
假设因为你的APP表现与众不同，脱颖而出，可以通过社交网络通话，能够知晓PIM数据或者是新的游戏类型。假设你可以自我激励，在众多不知名的APP中，你的APP能够产生影响，让其他商家竞相模仿，在搜索关键字中能够占据主要位置。安卓的APP商店都是没有秩序，很粗糙的。什么时候这些APP发行商将APP销售变成了不公平的竞争。
卖场地点
有Google Play Store，亚马逊的安卓商店，巴诺书店的Nook，以及Fasmicro和MiKandi。这些商店都可以作为你采购的地点。这也是市场中的分化，但是也可以用设备分化来实现，也就是用多种变体，协议等来建立。而苹果和Windows手机则只有一家中央商店。
对于像EA和Ubisoft这样的公司来说处理这些变体不是什么难事。但是对于小的开发工作室来说，他们不可能将所以的时间都用来建立和管理账户。在急速扩张时代结束时，开放而免费的策略并不是最好的选择。
小症状隐藏的大隐患
Windows手机的市场正在上升。这个事实显而易见。AT&T准备接着在美国发售诺基亚Lumia 900和HTC Titan2的机会，大力冲击市场，但是当面对以上问题的时候，或者是在安卓的空间时，有些开发人员就会另谋出路了。转向一个新的平台，比如Windows手机迎合了许多人喜欢修修补补的性情——这个新的平台有什么作用？它的SDK环境怎么样？我能不能获得应用商店里出名的程序，和大部分手机里用的程序一样？普通用户对这些事情可能对这些并不陌生。但是如果能够用少量的投入获得丰厚的回报，或者是保证将来可以获得很好的回报，那么很多程序开发人员都会被Windows手机引诱。
事实上，IDC的调查指出Windows手机的利润正在不断上升，现在有40%的开发人员都对微软的移动平台非常感兴趣，而这个数字，恰好是安卓系统的一半。
当然安卓系统的开发人员不会再一夜之间都消失，或者是一个季度之内都走人，但是如果移动的app一直在宣传，那么保不准程序开发者就能被吸引走。那也就意味着，随着市场份额的增长，为了使安卓的第三方能够一直保持强势，就必须要解决上述问题。
Five Reasons Why Developers Need To Be Wary About Android
A recent survey by IDC on mobile application development has brought out an interesting trend with Android developers. They’re not as excited about Google’s mobile OS platform as they were last year. While a drop to 79% of developers remaining “very interested” in developing for Android Phones still leaves almost four in five developers looking at Mountain View’s code, there are a number of early signs in IDC’s follow up survey of issues that could impact the space in 2012 and 2013. Addressing these now makes a lot of sense for Google to prevent the Android ecosystem going stale; and of course indie developers living from app to app need to be conscious of all the pain points in their own business plan.
All The Lovely Fragments
A lot has been written about the multiple versions of Android that are in the public’s hand and how this can cause developers to aim for the lowest common denominator in their code (right now that’s probably 2.3). But it’s not just the OS. There’s no consistency in SDK tools, there are six main screen sizes to code for, with a mix of aspect ratios, different hardware buttons, physical keyboards, no buttons at all… yes you can code to address all of these in one code branch (unwieldy and tricky) or do multiple versions (which is as awkward as it sounds). That fragmenting of Android into many platforms would be fine if there was a good return, but that’s not the case.
The Return on Investment
It seems to be a rule of thumb that Android apps in general do not make as much money as an iOS application. That’s probably more a function of the people buying the handsets than the quality of the applications (Android powers a lot of budget monthly and pre-pay handsets, who are likely to spend less on apps), but it means that for all that extra work detailed above, there’s less return. When developers have limited time and resources and need to choose a platform, it’s not the installed base that’s important, it’s a simple phrase… “show me the money.”
The Volume of Clone Applications
Let’s assume you have an application that’s going to stand out thanks to doing something a little differently, be it a way to talk to social networks, to work with PIM data, or perhaps a new genre for gaming. Assuming you can lift yourself and the application out of the obscurity of hundreds of thousands of apps and actually make an impact with your app, expect countless developers to turn out clone versions that will undercut your price and dominate the listings for the basic search terms. It’s a rough, almost lawless life in the Android stores. How long until all these churnware publishers will make app promotion such an unfair fight that developers move on?
Where Will You Sell?
The Google Play store, the Amazon Android Store, Barnes and Noble’s Nook Apps, Fasmicro, MiKandi, etc. That’s a lot of destinations where you can place your application. This is fragmentation of the market, and while it can sometimes help with device fragmentation, it means yet more juggling of multiple builds, variants, agreements, and headaches to build up.Contrast that with both iOS and Windows Phone which have… one central store each.
It might be okay for companies like EA and Ubisoft to deal with all these variants, but the small developer houses and hobby developers can’t spend all their time setting up the store accounts and managing them. Sometimes being open and allowing a free-for-all is not the best option once the rapid growth phase is over.
The Dangers of Shiny Syndrome
Windows Phone is on the rise. Simple fact. AT&T are going to give the ecosystem a big kick with the US launch of the Nokia Lumia 900 and the HTC Titan 2 in April, but when faced with all the problems above, and having been in the Android developer space, maybe some developers are looking at the alternatives. Moving over to a new platform such as Windows Phone appeals to the tinkering nature of many – what can this new platform do, what is the SDK environment like, can I get in and be one of the big names in the store and hold on as more handsets are sold? The grass may or may not be greener on the other side, but if it provides a similar return for less effort, and the promise of a better return in the long terms, then Windows Phone could lure away developers.
In fact the IDC survey points out that interest in Windows Phone is on the rise, and now 40% of contacted developers are “very interested” in coding for Microsoft’s mobile platform. That’s just over half those very interested in Android.Android developers are not going to walk away overnight, or even over a quarter, but if the cry of mobile is “apps, apps, apps” then any ecosystem will want to take care of their developers. And that means addressing the issues above to keep Android’s third party scene as strong as the market share rises.
