1815年的维也纳会议将重划拿破仑战败后的欧洲政治地图，而捷克的德里捏亲王幽默的评论道：“Si le congrès dance, il ne marche pas."， 意思是”大会变舞会，一切都徒劳。相比于承担法国革命后重组政治秩序的沉重责任，他认为欧洲的贵族们对维也纳宫廷的舞会盛宴更感兴趣。
时光如水，岁月如梭。几百年过去了，欧洲历史却面临重演。欧债危机伊始，高级会议、研讨会、工作午餐和晚餐聚会的照片就出现在了晚间新闻上。主要参与者就是欧元区的四大巨头：德、法、意、西。大量的社交活动诞生了唯一一个确切的共识，那就是没有共识。除此之外，还有就是这四个国家领导人都想要继续跳这场空中楼阁的舞蹈。在经济问题上，欧元区的国家各执一词。但这场舞本身的意义十分重大，拒绝某人的邀舞会变成个大麻烦，所以每个人都必须要继续跳下去。
法国就是这样。作为舞会的女主人，她想走但却不能走。有时候她看起来是站在她那些地中海的邻居们一边的，可有时候她又不管不顾的和他们保持距离。到底站在谁一边，法国在”鸡头“还是”凤尾“这个问题上摇摆不定。
意大利也是这样。他在财政紧缩问题上与德国达成一致，又要求欧盟变得更强大以此来向法国献殷勤。结果，因为法国害怕危机蔓延，德国对南欧人懒散的偏见，意大利马屁拍到了马腿上，两边谁都没落着。
再说说西班牙，四大巨头里第一个出了问题结果现在众叛亲离的国家。就连意大利这个时候都不太愿意搭理它。因为意大利还没惨到这份上，所以当西班牙希望它伸出援手时，它对西班牙的感情小心翼翼。
最后就是德国，这个舞会上最闪耀的女孩。总理默克尔接受了每个人的邀舞，包括西班牙总理德拉霍伊和意大利总理莫蒂，前者希望欧洲央行拨款以改善预算控制，后者坚持欧洲政治联合应加强。还有法国总统奥朗德，他主张传统法德联盟的领导地位，并且特别仔细的强调了”法德联盟“，而不是”德法联盟“。
所以，政客们各怀鬼胎，会议注定是一场空中楼阁的舞蹈，它无法取得什么实际进展。
1815年，拿破仑的卷土重来让人猝不及防，也让那场”舞会“戛然而止。老皇帝逃离流放地厄尔巴岛并在巴黎重夺政权，这让恐惧成为了维也纳会议快速取得进展的催化剂。拿破仑就好比如今的金融危机，他比维也纳会议中做出的决定更能改变世界政治力量格局。因此职业外交家，如梅特涅和塔里兰在发现他们肩负着要在几个星期之内清除绊脚石和解决开放性问题的重任后，通常果断跳过国王的授权直接决定。
2012年，有什么能产生同样的效果？很显然，经济衰退论和高失业率都不足以撼动那个舞台。我们已经对该死的数据和倒闭的工厂习以为常了。
也许如今的拿破仑是那些央行行长。他们是唯一看起来有意愿和能力去规划他们的脚步，去在欧元区的金融战场上战斗的人们，代替政府，越过政府，这或许能促使政府快点达成共识。Draghi和其他除德国外的央行行长积极购买次级市场大量流通的国家债券，在证明了绝处逢生还是有可能的同时，展现了政府的袖手旁观。它还表明了，不管是在哪里，中央机构比两个、四个还是二十七的国家所作出的决定更有执行力和公信力。
那些自由经济思想之父认为央行力量微弱，因此需要政治自治来保持独立性来防止出于政治目的而做出的数据篡改等行为。他们从没想过央行与政府之间的角色会对调，就像欧洲现在一样。
在这种环境下，战争在以行长Mario Draghi和Jens Weidmann为代表的欧洲央行与德国央行之间打响，由此可见欧元区的力量对比发生改变。其实这些央行做出的决定既没有考虑欧洲国家的社会稳定，也没有要与欧洲经济与金融委员会同步行动的意思，还直接忽略了欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐和欧洲理事会常任主席范龙佩，这无一不显示出央行地位的重要。
当各国财长无法取得共识并采取行动的前提下，权利就移交给了各大央行。欧洲的金融与财政未来依赖于它们所制定的货币政策，而这些政策的制定又受到各央行自身状况和宗旨的影响。德意志联邦银行主要目标是控制通货膨胀。而欧洲央行的目标是维护货币的稳定，或者是说尽可能的挽救欧元。现状似乎表明了欧洲央行处于下风。
也许所有这一切可以说服欧洲的政客们解散舞会，恢复政治权力的强势。尽管目前，他们似乎将政治权力交给了他们自己任命的行长手里了。或许我们这些欧洲平民也该明白政治行动的重要性。在巴黎、罗马的峰会上，领导人们一个个光彩照人，他们还在跳着那场如在空中楼阁般的舞蹈。可真正的欧洲未来却掌握在法兰克福闹市区的金融大厦里。
At the Vienna Congress of 1815, which was supposed to redraw the continent’s political map, Prince Charles de Ligne wittily remarked: “Si le congrès dance, il ne marche pas." If the Congress dances, it does not move along. He believed that the European aristocracy was showing more interest in the gala balls of imperial Vienna than in the painful responsibility to design a new political order after the French revolution.
Centuries have passed, but history – especially European history – has a tendency to repeat itself. From the beginning of the Eurozone crisis, images of high-level meetings, conferences, working lunches and dinners appeared on the evening news. The main participants were the “big four” of the Eurozone: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The only definite agreement that has come out of this mass of social events is that no real agreement exists, except the collective will to continue the subtle diplomatic dance. On economic issues, Europe does not speak with one voice.
But the dance has become important in itself. It is mandatory that one keeps dancing with all the other heads of state. Denying a dance to someone might result in serious annoyance.
This is true in the case of France, the reluctant mistress of the ball, who sometimes seems to side with her Mediterranean neighbors and sometimes denies any allegiance to them whatsoever. France cannot decide whether it is better to be last among the strong powers, or first among the weaker ones.
It is also true in the case of Italy, which sides with Germany on questions of fiscal austerity one day, and courts the French with calls for a stronger European Union the next day. In the end, Italy is rebuffed by both France (which fears contagion) and by Germany (which continues to embrace the prejudice that Northern Europe is hardworking, while Southern Europe remains lazy and sunbathing).
It is true in the case of Spain, the first country of the gang of four to show visible cracks and is shunned by everyone else as a result. Even Italy isn’t too keen on talking with the Spanish at the moment: it does not require the same kind of assistance and therefore looks to Spain with the suspicion reserved for a friend with an unexplained fever, who wants to come over for a visit.
Finally, there is Germany, the rich girl at the party. Chancellor Merkel does not deny anybody a dance: not to Marino Rojoy, the Spanish prime minister, who is asking for money from the European Central Bank in exchange for better budgetary control. Not to Mario Monti, Italy’s prime minister, who insists that Europe needs better political governance. Not to François Hollande, the French president, who promotes the traditional Franco-German alliance and leadership (and is careful to insist on precisely that order: The Franco-German alliance).
And thus, the congress dances without really moving.
In 1815, the sudden reappearance of Napoleon put an abrupt stop to the dancing. When the old emperor returned from exile in Elba and seized power in Paris once again, fear became the driving force in Vienna. Napoleon, like today’s financial crisis, was a much greater threat to the European political balance of powers than any decision coming from meetings in Vienna could have been. Thus, career diplomats like Metternich and Talleyrand found themselves in the position of having to remove all roadblocks and settle most open problems within a few weeks, often passing over the heads of their kings.
Is there something that could have a similar effect in 2012? Evidently, neither the threat of recession nor rising unemployment are sufficient to shake up the dance floor. We have become too accustomed to worrisome statistics and the closing of factories between Hamburg and Lisbon.
Maybe today’s Napoleons are the central bankers, the only ones who seem to have the will and the power to plan their moves and to fight on the financial battleground of the Eurozone – in place of, and in spite of, national governments.
The decision of Mario Draghi and of the other central bankers (with the exception of Germany) to buy bonds of countries with high spreads in the secondary market is a demonstration that daring decisions are still possible. But it illustrates that politicians and governments are more witnesses than active players. It also demonstrates that a single centralized institution is more powerful and credible – in Europe and outside Europe – than any agreement resulting from the dance among two, or four, or twenty-seven countries.
The founding fathers of liberal economics thought of central banks as weak powers that had to be autonomous from politics to maintain independence and prevent the manipulation of data and decision for political advantage. They had never envisioned a situation with strong central banks and weak political power, like the Europe of today.
In this environment, the fight between the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank (and between their respective heads, Mario Draghi and Jens Weidmann) reflects the shifting balance of powers in the Euro zone. The fact that their decisions are taken with no concern about the social stability of the European countries, without any common course of action from Ecofin (the committee of European ministers of finance), and without any participation from the Barroso and Van Rompoy shows the impotence of institutions besides the central banks.
In the absence of a European Finance Minister, when ministries of finance fail to find a common view and course of action, the power to shape Europe’s financial and fiscal future is vested in the monetary policy of central banks, with each central bank influenced in its actions by the need to protect itself and its own mission. The German Central Bank is trying to avoid any hint of inflation – that is its main institutional objective, while the ECB tried to prevent the failure of the common currency, which would also imply the demission of the ECB.
Maybe all this will convince European politicians to stop their dances and seize the political initiative anew. Right now, they seem to have passed it over to the bankers that they themselves appointed. Or maybe we, the citizens of Europe, must grasp the importance of political action. While the heads of state continue to dance, in the splendor of the summits in Paris or Rome, the true Europe is in the making in the financial towers of downtown Frankfurt.
