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亚洲消费者购物热情减退,各大高级门店门可罗雀

Daisy翻译,Daisy发布英文 ; 2012-08-21 11:15 阅读次 
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LV店前门可罗雀对欧洲和美国的出口成为拖累经济增长的不利因素的情况下,亚洲消费者成了保持该地区各个国家经济活力的重要力量。而如今却有迹象表明,亚洲消费者支出数量也在下降。对于全球经济少数亮点之一的亚洲地区来说,这是一个坏消息。长期以来,对欧美的出口是亚洲国家经济增长的重要因素。

韩国人购置新车的数量减少,中国消费者削减了添置新衣的支出。香港路易威登(Louis Vuitton)门店外排队的购物者数量没有以往那么多了。澳门和新加坡赌场赌桌上赌注──这是观察中国旅游业和消费支出的一个窗口──的增长速度和前三年相比慢了不少。

一些经济学家说,最近几个月,亚洲大部分地区曾经表现突出的消费业已经失去了优势。许多店主和企业主说,他们已经感到消费者谨慎消费带来的影响。

大厨伊姆兰(Shawkat Imran)说,顾客的消费能力不及以往了,有时顾客到店里会几个人分享一道美食,原来会点一杯葡萄酒的顾客现在只会点一杯水了。伊姆兰在香港多家意大利餐厅拥有股份。

伊姆兰说,顾客数量没有下降,但顾客现在经常会几个人分享一道美食,每餐消费金额降低了20%。

市场情绪的转变并不明显,目前还没有证据表明亚洲地区的消费支出像西班牙和希腊那样大幅下降。但亚洲很多经济体的消费支出增速已经从高位下滑。如果欧洲和美国继续衰退,且亚洲的贸易前景进一步恶化,那么亚洲消费者最终将被迫大幅削减消费开支。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡新兴市场研究负责人乔克(Nigel Chalk)说,失去强大的消费者──大多数经济学家并不认为强劲的消费是一个默认的前提条件──将成为亚洲经济体所遭受的下一个冲击。乔克曾在国际货币基金组织(IMF)任经济学家。

亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)估计今年亚洲地区(不含日本)的经济增速将降至6.6%,低于去年的7.2%,是自2009年金融危机以来的最低水平。造成经济增速放缓的主要原因是出口放缓。

亚洲消费者主要受益于健康的就业市场和工资水平的上升。雇主不愿意裁员,认为目前市场的暂时停滞并非更大规模经济衰退的开始。尽管出口增长放缓,但新加坡、香港、台湾和韩国等贸易依赖型经济体的失业率却接近记录低点。

在新加坡和马来西亚均有业务的电子产品和家装产品零售商Courts Asia的首席执行长奥康纳(Terry O'Connor)说,我们没有看到亚洲经济受到全球经济的重大影响,但我也不认为亚洲经济在蓬勃发展;亚洲不存在就业危机。

尽管如此,该地区的就业前景已经变得冷清。新加坡人力资源公司Achieve Group对450家企业进行的调查发现,三分之二的企业在今年余下的时间里将不再招聘新员工。而六个月之前,只有50%的企业预计会这么做。一些经济学家说,韩国的低失业率数据具有欺骗性。许多年龄较大且找不到工作的韩国人已经开始自谋生路,比如依靠摆食品摊获得一些微薄的收入。

该地区最大的经济体中国7月份零售额同比增长了13%。这个增长势头仍然算是强劲,但却低于过去几年里20%的增幅。为应对这一状况,中国政府在税收方面推出了刺激政策,以促进家电的销售,中国政府还重新启动了“以旧换新”项目。

雨果博斯(Hugo Boss)和Calvin Klein等高端品牌的高端成衣制造商利华成衣集团(Lever Style Inc.)首席执行长司徒志仁(Stanley Szeto)说,与前几年前相比,现在的生意可以说是在爬行。

司徒志仁说,利华成衣最初几乎完全依靠来自欧美的需求。然而过去几年,包括香港和台湾在内的大中华区弥补了发达国家需求不足的状况。他说,如今,中国的零售商放慢了开设新店的速度,或者是销售增长略有放缓,同时还存在库存过多的问题。

在经济严重依赖贸易的韩国,消费完全停滞不前。百货公司的销售和汽车销量都在缩水。房地产价格已经开始下降。政府采取了大量措施刺激消费,包括放宽对购房贷款的限制。推出一项大规模一揽子刺激方案的讨论也浮出水面。

就在韩国的汽车制造商在美国销售现代(Hyundai)汽车和起亚(Kia)汽车刚开始盈利的当口,国内销量却正在下降。

位于首尔东部的一家现代汽车经销商的经理Park Jong-moon说,以往节假日期间通常是销售旺季,但现在不是了;经济不景气,有钱的消费者确实买得起汽车和其他东西,但是,由于许多人都承担着银行贷款和其他债务,他们没钱消费。

在2012年已经过去的七个月里,Park Jong-moon的店面的销量有五个月都呈下降趋势。其6月的销量环比下降了7%。韩国汽车工业协会(Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association)说,今年上半年,全国范围汽车销量同比下降了6%。

鉴于韩国在全球电子产品和汽车供应链中的核心地位,韩国是全球出口贸易的风向标,亚洲其他国家则希望本国的消费者不会步韩国消费者之后尘。

LV店前门可罗雀对欧洲和美国的出口成为拖累经济增长的不利因素的情况下,亚洲消费者成了保持该地区各个国家经济活力的重要力量。而如今却有迹象表明,亚洲消费者支出数量也在下降。对于全球经济少数亮点之一的亚洲地区来说,这是一个坏消息。长期以来,对欧美的出口是亚洲国家经济增长的重要因素。

韩国人购置新车的数量减少,中国消费者削减了添置新衣的支出。香港路易威登(Louis Vuitton)门店外排队的购物者数量没有以往那么多了。澳门和新加坡赌场赌桌上赌注──这是观察中国旅游业和消费支出的一个窗口──的增长速度和前三年相比慢了不少。

一些经济学家说,最近几个月,亚洲大部分地区曾经表现突出的消费业已经失去了优势。许多店主和企业主说,他们已经感到消费者谨慎消费带来的影响。

大厨伊姆兰(Shawkat Imran)说,顾客的消费能力不及以往了,有时顾客到店里会几个人分享一道美食,原来会点一杯葡萄酒的顾客现在只会点一杯水了。伊姆兰在香港多家意大利餐厅拥有股份。

伊姆兰说,顾客数量没有下降,但顾客现在经常会几个人分享一道美食,每餐消费金额降低了20%。

市场情绪的转变并不明显,目前还没有证据表明亚洲地区的消费支出像西班牙和希腊那样大幅下降。但亚洲很多经济体的消费支出增速已经从高位下滑。如果欧洲和美国继续衰退,且亚洲的贸易前景进一步恶化,那么亚洲消费者最终将被迫大幅削减消费开支。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡新兴市场研究负责人乔克(Nigel Chalk)说,失去强大的消费者──大多数经济学家并不认为强劲的消费是一个默认的前提条件──将成为亚洲经济体所遭受的下一个冲击。乔克曾在国际货币基金组织(IMF)任经济学家。

亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)估计今年亚洲地区(不含日本)的经济增速将降至6.6%,低于去年的7.2%,是自2009年金融危机以来的最低水平。造成经济增速放缓的主要原因是出口放缓。

亚洲消费者主要受益于健康的就业市场和工资水平的上升。雇主不愿意裁员,认为目前市场的暂时停滞并非更大规模经济衰退的开始。尽管出口增长放缓,但新加坡、香港、台湾和韩国等贸易依赖型经济体的失业率却接近记录低点。

在新加坡和马来西亚均有业务的电子产品和家装产品零售商Courts Asia的首席执行长奥康纳(Terry O'Connor)说,我们没有看到亚洲经济受到全球经济的重大影响,但我也不认为亚洲经济在蓬勃发展;亚洲不存在就业危机。

尽管如此,该地区的就业前景已经变得冷清。新加坡人力资源公司Achieve Group对450家企业进行的调查发现,三分之二的企业在今年余下的时间里将不再招聘新员工。而六个月之前,只有50%的企业预计会这么做。一些经济学家说,韩国的低失业率数据具有欺骗性。许多年龄较大且找不到工作的韩国人已经开始自谋生路,比如依靠摆食品摊获得一些微薄的收入。

该地区最大的经济体中国7月份零售额同比增长了13%。这个增长势头仍然算是强劲,但却低于过去几年里20%的增幅。为应对这一状况,中国政府在税收方面推出了刺激政策,以促进家电的销售,中国政府还重新启动了“以旧换新”项目。

雨果博斯(Hugo Boss)和Calvin Klein等高端品牌的高端成衣制造商利华成衣集团(Lever Style Inc.)首席执行长司徒志仁(Stanley Szeto)说,与前几年前相比,现在的生意可以说是在爬行。

司徒志仁说,利华成衣最初几乎完全依靠来自欧美的需求。然而过去几年,包括香港和台湾在内的大中华区弥补了发达国家需求不足的状况。他说,如今,中国的零售商放慢了开设新店的速度,或者是销售增长略有放缓,同时还存在库存过多的问题。

在经济严重依赖贸易的韩国,消费完全停滞不前。百货公司的销售和汽车销量都在缩水。房地产价格已经开始下降。政府采取了大量措施刺激消费,包括放宽对购房贷款的限制。推出一项大规模一揽子刺激方案的讨论也浮出水面。

就在韩国的汽车制造商在美国销售现代(Hyundai)汽车和起亚(Kia)汽车刚开始盈利的当口,国内销量却正在下降。

位于首尔东部的一家现代汽车经销商的经理Park Jong-moon说,以往节假日期间通常是销售旺季,但现在不是了;经济不景气,有钱的消费者确实买得起汽车和其他东西,但是,由于许多人都承担着银行贷款和其他债务,他们没钱消费。

在2012年已经过去的七个月里,Park Jong-moon的店面的销量有五个月都呈下降趋势。其6月的销量环比下降了7%。韩国汽车工业协会(Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association)说,今年上半年,全国范围汽车销量同比下降了6%。

鉴于韩国在全球电子产品和汽车供应链中的核心地位,韩国是全球出口贸易的风向标,亚洲其他国家则希望本国的消费者不会步韩国消费者之后尘。

Asian consumers have kept their countries' economies humming while exports to Europe and the U.S., long key sources of growth, have been a drag. Now there are signs consumer spending also is ticking down, which is bad news for one of the global economy's few bright spots.

Koreans are buying fewer cars. Chinese consumers are cutting back on new clothes. There aren't as many shoppers lining up outside Louis Vuitton boutiques in Hong Kong. Bets at the baccarat tables in casinos in Macau and Singapore - a proxy for Chinese tourism and consumer spending - have grown more slowly than in the previous three years.

Some economists say that in recent months, the high-performing consumer sector across much of Asia has lost its edge. Many shopkeepers and business owners say they are feeling the effects of the cautious consumer.

The spending power is less than before, said Shawkat Imran, chef and part-owner of several Italian restaurants in Hong Kong. Sometimes customers come, they share food. Some who used to drink a glass of wine now order a glass of water.

The number of customers hasn't dropped, Mr. Imran said, but they are sharing dishes and spending 20% less per bill.

The shift in sentiment is subtle, and there isn't yet evidence that spending has plunged as it did in Spain and Greece. But in many economies, spending growth has ebbed from high levels. Should Europe and the U.S. continue to slide and Asia's trade picture get worse, Asian consumers will eventually be forced to cut back in more meaningful ways.

The loss of the robust consumer - while not considered a given by most economists - would represent the next leg down for Asia's economies, said Nigel Chalk, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund who now heads emerging-markets research at Barclays Capital in Singapore.

The Asian Development Bank figures the region, outside Japan, will slow to an annual rate of 6.6% growth this year, compared with 7.2% in 2011, its slowest pace since the 2009 financial crisis. Much of that decline is due to slowing exports.

Consumers in Asia have benefited from a healthy job market and rising wages. Employers are reluctant to cut positions, fearing that the current lull is just that, and not the beginning of broader recession. Despite the export slowdown, unemployment rates in trade-dependent economies such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea are near record lows.

We aren't seeing any major fallout from the broader world, but I wouldn't describe it as booming either, said Terry O'Connor, chief executive of Courts Asia, an electronics and home-furnishings retailer in Singapore and Malaysia. There isn't a jobs crisis here.

Nevertheless, the region's employment outlook has cooled. A survey of 450 companies by Singapore recruiters Achieve Group found that two-thirds have frozen hiring for the rest of the year. Six months ago, only half the companies expected to do so. South Korea's low rate of unemployment is deceptive, some economists say. Many older residents, unable to find jobs, have struck out on their own, opening food stands and markets that make little money.

In China, the region's largest economy, retail sales grew 13% in July compared with the year earlier. That is still strong, but slower than the 20% growth rates of the past few years. To compensate, the government has unveiled tax incentives to goose purchases of home appliances and restarted a type of cash for clunkers' program.

Relative to a couple of years ago, things are crawling said Stanley Szeto, chief executive of Lever Style Inc., a Hong Kong-based maker of high-end clothes for brands such as Hugo Boss and Calvin Klein. Lever Style has 7,000 employees and factories in China and Vietnam.

Before, the clothing manufacturer had relied almost completely on demand from Europe and the U.S., Mr. Szeto said. However, in the past few years, Greater China, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, made up for weakness from the developed world, he said. Nowadays, Chinese retailers are building fewer stores or their sales growth is a little slower and they are over-inventoried,' Mr. Szeto said.

In South Korea, where the economy hinges on trade, consumers are downright moribund. Department-store sales and auto sales are shrinking. Home prices are starting to fall. The government has reacted with a raft of measures to support consumers, including easier terms on home loans. There also is talk of a major stimulus package.

While Korea's car makers are managing to turn a profit selling Hyundais and Kias in the U.S, at home, sales are contracting.

Vacation season and holidays are times when we used to make good sales, but not now, says Park Jong-moon, manager at a Hyundai dealership in eastern Seoul. The economy is not doing well. Customers with money can buy cars and other things but, since many have bank loans and debts, they don't have money to spend.

In 2012, his showroom has seen sales decline in five of the past seven months. In June, sales were down 7% from May. Nationwide, car sales in the first half of the year were 6% lower than in 2011, according to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association.

Korea's central role in the global supply chain of electronics and cars makes it something of a bellwether on exports. The rest of Asia is hoping Korean consumers aren't bellwethers, too.


关键字: 亚洲 消费 冷却 LV
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