RTE新闻主编托尼通过Twitter给我们带来了亿万富翁投资者乔治·索罗斯在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上的讲话摘要：
索罗斯：日元和欧元之间的分歧会加剧，这将严重影响到德国
——托尼（@tconnellyRTE)2013年1月24日
在德国一些人已经意识到这个了。就在前几天，德国央行主席德曼指责日本说，“这样做已经是可以观察到的令人担忧的侵犯行为。例如在匈牙利或日本，政府中央银行新推出大规模干预与更加激进的货币政策的压力，已经威胁到中央银行的自治。”他说，“不论是有意的还是无意的，后果是可能增加汇率。”
今天在一份报告中，央行外汇师阿纳西奥斯解释为什么德国有两个理由担心日元的竞争性贬值。
他写道：
第一，欧元区担心德国可能最终成为最后一个“玩公平”的成员。欧洲央行严格限制通货膨胀行动来支持增长，这样也削弱了美联储和英国货币采取一样的行动。承诺以市场为导向的汇率来阻止直接或间接操纵欧元，其充分独立性使得任何有关欧元的欧洲政客们的评论与日本最近情况对比几乎是无关紧要的。
因此，如其它央行的目标一样，直接或简介地使得货币贬值，欧元区会成为最强的货币，从而远离市场导向的水平。最终的结果将是一个较弱的欧元区经济体，这可能最终会威胁到央行独立性。
第二，其次，德国的经济复苏很大程度上取决于中国可能遭受日元疲软。在很大程度上，德国和日本的目标市场有七个相似贸易伙伴是相同的。此外，德国是日本第四大最重要的出口市场，而日本是德国第十大最重要的出口市场。特别地，中国对德国和日本两国是第三大重要出口市场。
更重要的是，尽管日本对中国出口份额远远大于德国，自2008年-2009年全球经济危机以来，中国出口一直是德国复苏动力。导致了增长远远超过了其它主要发达经济体。后者表明进一步削弱日元会降低德国主要增长动力，而复苏仍将疲软。欧元区经济衰退可能也是同样的原因，因此做为欧元区之一的德国，将会受到中国硬着陆的负面影响。
托尼期待2月15日的20国集团会议，日元贬值可以通过德国等国家政客们来解决。
RTE News editor Tony Connelly brought us another key excerpt via Twitter from billionaire investor George Soros' speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland:
Soros: the divergence between the Yen and euro will be aggravated, will badly affect Germany #davos
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) January 24, 2013
Some in Germany seem to already be aware of this. Just the other day, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann pointed the finger at Japan, saying, "Already alarming violations can be observed, for example in Hungary or Japan, where the new government is interfering massively in the business of the central bank with pressure for a more aggressive monetary policy and threatening an end to central bank autonomy." He added, "A consequence, whether intentional or unintentional, could moreover be an increased politicisation of exchange rates."
In a note today, BofA currency strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis explained why Germany has two good reasons to be worried about the competitive devaluation of the yen underway in Japan.
Vamvakidis wrote:
First, Germany is worried that the Eurozone could end up being the last one to "play it fair." The ECB's strict inflation mandate limits its actions to support growth, actions that would have also weakened the currency, as in the case of the Fed and the BoE. Its commitment to a market-driven exchange rate prevents it from directly or indirectly manipulating the Euro, while its full independence makes any comments from European politicians about the Euro almost irrelevant, in contrast with the case of Japan recently.
As a result, if all other central banks target, directly or indirectly, a weaker currency, the Eurozone will end up with the strongest currency, which would be far from a market-driven level. The final outcome will be a weaker Eurozone economy, which could eventually threaten the ECB's independence.
Second, Germany's recovery depends to a large extent on China and could suffer from a weak JPY. To a large extent, Germany and Japan target similar markets, with seven out of their top-20 trading partners being the same (Table 1). Moreover, Germany is Japan’s fourth most important export market, while Japan is Germany’s 10th most important export market. China in particular is the third most important export market for both Germany and Japan.
Even more important, despite Japan's export share to China being much larger than the one of Germany (Chart 5), exports to China has been a driving force for Germany's recovery since the global crisis of 2008-09, contributing to growth much more than in other major advanced economies (Chart of the Day and Chart 6). The latter suggests that a further weakening of the JPY could reduce the power of a key growth engine for Germany, at a time when its recovery remains weak and the Eurozone is still in recession – for the same reasons, Germany, and as a result the Eurozone, would be affected negatively by a hard-landing scenario in China.
Vamvakidis is looking ahead to the February 15 G-20 meeting, where he says the yen devaluation could be addressed by policymakers from countries like Germany.
