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未来十年,中国金融行业发展前景分析与展望

Danny翻译,Danny发布英文 ; 2012-11-16 16:13 阅读次 
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未来十年,中国金融行业发展前景分析与展望中国金融改革,作为促进中国经济和国内消费需求增长的重要手段,必将成为中国新一代中央领导人的首要任务。在于上周三举办的中共十八大会议上,中国国家主席胡锦涛已明确了中央政府实施金融改革的决心。

2011年中国的金融市场改革就已经开始,包括:扩大人民币对美元的汇率交易区间;提高外国公司对国内证券市场的投资上限;放宽存、贷款利率设置权限等。

经济学家相信,未来几年,中国金融改革的速度将会逐步加快。汇丰银行中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示,预计中国将会在金融领域采取一系列的改革措施。“今后几年,金融改革的步伐将会明显加快,它将成为中国新一代领导人执政后的第一要务。”

一些分析师认为,放宽存、贷款利率,发展债券市场和放宽货币政策、实现人民币自由兑换等将是未来中国金融改革的重点。 “除了能提高资本配置的有效性,促进民营企业的发展,还能为中产阶级投资、储蓄和消费提供更大的选择空间,” 屈宏斌说到。专家表示,这些改革措施能有效促进中国由出口型经济向消费型经济的转变。

今年6月份,中国人民银行首次实行利率自由化,放宽了银行对存、贷款利率的设置权限。各银行的存款利率浮动上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍,贷款利率浮动下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍,贷款利率低于之前的0.9倍。屈宏斌介绍到,这项改革措施实施后,人民的消费能力提高了,过度投资的情况减少了,市场将在资本配置中发挥更大的作用,经济结构也将向消费型经济转变。

一、债券市场的发展

扩大债券市场规模,降低银行系统风险。银行借贷的份额占到中国大陆社会融资的75%,反映出社会融资对银行业的严重依赖。2009年,中国政府实施大规模刺激计划,其中约60%的贷款是由银行信贷提供的。

野村证券(Nomura)的首席中国经济学家张智威表示,中国经济必须改变过度依赖银行业的现状,为企业融资创造更多渠道。他介绍到,“中国的国企正在排挤民营企业,因为他们可以以较低利息获得更多的银行贷款,仅是这些贷款就已经足够完成银行每年的贷款份额。” 并表示,债券市场的发展将有助于促进企业间的公平竞争。

目前,中国政府正在加快债券市场的发展,已经开始进行市政债券和高收益债券发行的试点工作。2011年,中央政府选取了四个地方政府作为试点,通过发行债券来增加税收。今年6月份,又启动了一个融资项目,允许小型企业发行高收益债券。公司债券的发行也有所增长,2012年上半年,公司债券发行量比去年增长了60%。

屈宏斌表示,通过市政债券和公司债券的扩大发行,预计未来五年,中国国内债券市场的规模将扩大一倍。欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)中国分析师Nicholas Consonery对此表示赞同,从“过去几年中国债务市场的迅猛增长”来看,中国国内的债务市场将进入快速扩张阶段。

二、人民币弹性汇率机制的发展

货币战略专家认为,中国政府将继续推动人民币弹性汇率机制的形成。

“推动人民币自由兑换的方法多种多样,例如,今年中国政府采取的扩大人民币交易区间,”巴克莱(Barclays)外汇策略师Hamish Pepper说到,“最终,我们将看到人民币交易区间的进一步扩大,因为中国政府希望看到人民币对美元汇率的双向波动趋势增强。”

2012年4月份,中国扩大了人民币交易区间,兑换汇率由原先的只能比中间价高/低0.5个百分点扩大到1个百分点,标志着中国经济向市场导向型经济体制的转变。

现在,全球贸易中有越来越多的人使用人民币作为结算货币,人民币自由兑换的需求正在形成。2011年,人民币结算贸易占全球贸易总量的9%。

从2005年开始,人民币可直接与美元兑换。曾有美国政客指控中国政府人为压低人民币汇率来促进出口。现在,人民币升值的时代已全面到来。自2012年9月份以来,人民币兑美元汇率已上升2个百分点。这也得益于世界央行采取的最新一轮的货币宽松政策。

Kapstream Capita的董事总经理Kumar Palghat 表示,经过一系列的改革措施,10年后的中国金融业将呈现出崭新的面貌。“未来10年将发生很多事情,中国政府极可能会放开对人民币汇率的管制。如果是这样,人民币是否会成为储备货币?如果人民币实现自由兑换,中国的债券市场和产权投资市场又将发展成怎样的规模?这是值得我们深思的,” Palghat说到。

未来十年,中国金融行业发展前景分析与展望中国金融改革,作为促进中国经济和国内消费需求增长的重要手段,必将成为中国新一代中央领导人的首要任务。在于上周三举办的中共十八大会议上,中国国家主席胡锦涛已明确了中央政府实施金融改革的决心。

2011年中国的金融市场改革就已经开始,包括:扩大人民币对美元的汇率交易区间;提高外国公司对国内证券市场的投资上限;放宽存、贷款利率设置权限等。

经济学家相信,未来几年,中国金融改革的速度将会逐步加快。汇丰银行中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示,预计中国将会在金融领域采取一系列的改革措施。“今后几年,金融改革的步伐将会明显加快,它将成为中国新一代领导人执政后的第一要务。”

一些分析师认为,放宽存、贷款利率,发展债券市场和放宽货币政策、实现人民币自由兑换等将是未来中国金融改革的重点。 “除了能提高资本配置的有效性,促进民营企业的发展,还能为中产阶级投资、储蓄和消费提供更大的选择空间,” 屈宏斌说到。专家表示,这些改革措施能有效促进中国由出口型经济向消费型经济的转变。

今年6月份,中国人民银行首次实行利率自由化,放宽了银行对存、贷款利率的设置权限。各银行的存款利率浮动上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍,贷款利率浮动下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍,贷款利率低于之前的0.9倍。屈宏斌介绍到,这项改革措施实施后,人民的消费能力提高了,过度投资的情况减少了,市场将在资本配置中发挥更大的作用,经济结构也将向消费型经济转变。

一、债券市场的发展

扩大债券市场规模,降低银行系统风险。银行借贷的份额占到中国大陆社会融资的75%,反映出社会融资对银行业的严重依赖。2009年,中国政府实施大规模刺激计划,其中约60%的贷款是由银行信贷提供的。

野村证券(Nomura)的首席中国经济学家张智威表示,中国经济必须改变过度依赖银行业的现状,为企业融资创造更多渠道。他介绍到,“中国的国企正在排挤民营企业,因为他们可以以较低利息获得更多的银行贷款,仅是这些贷款就已经足够完成银行每年的贷款份额。” 并表示,债券市场的发展将有助于促进企业间的公平竞争。

目前,中国政府正在加快债券市场的发展,已经开始进行市政债券和高收益债券发行的试点工作。2011年,中央政府选取了四个地方政府作为试点,通过发行债券来增加税收。今年6月份,又启动了一个融资项目,允许小型企业发行高收益债券。公司债券的发行也有所增长,2012年上半年,公司债券发行量比去年增长了60%。

屈宏斌表示,通过市政债券和公司债券的扩大发行,预计未来五年,中国国内债券市场的规模将扩大一倍。欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)中国分析师Nicholas Consonery对此表示赞同,从“过去几年中国债务市场的迅猛增长”来看,中国国内的债务市场将进入快速扩张阶段。

二、人民币弹性汇率机制的发展

货币战略专家认为,中国政府将继续推动人民币弹性汇率机制的形成。

“推动人民币自由兑换的方法多种多样,例如,今年中国政府采取的扩大人民币交易区间,”巴克莱(Barclays)外汇策略师Hamish Pepper说到,“最终,我们将看到人民币交易区间的进一步扩大,因为中国政府希望看到人民币对美元汇率的双向波动趋势增强。”

2012年4月份,中国扩大了人民币交易区间,兑换汇率由原先的只能比中间价高/低0.5个百分点扩大到1个百分点,标志着中国经济向市场导向型经济体制的转变。

现在,全球贸易中有越来越多的人使用人民币作为结算货币,人民币自由兑换的需求正在形成。2011年,人民币结算贸易占全球贸易总量的9%。

从2005年开始,人民币可直接与美元兑换。曾有美国政客指控中国政府人为压低人民币汇率来促进出口。现在,人民币升值的时代已全面到来。自2012年9月份以来,人民币兑美元汇率已上升2个百分点。这也得益于世界央行采取的最新一轮的货币宽松政策。

Kapstream Capita的董事总经理Kumar Palghat 表示,经过一系列的改革措施,10年后的中国金融业将呈现出崭新的面貌。“未来10年将发生很多事情,中国政府极可能会放开对人民币汇率的管制。如果是这样,人民币是否会成为储备货币?如果人民币实现自由兑换,中国的债券市场和产权投资市场又将发展成怎样的规模?这是值得我们深思的,” Palghat说到。

Reforming China’s financial sector, regarded as essential for sustaining strong economic growth and a rise in domestic demand, looks likely to be a top priority for China’s new leadership.

In fact, in his opening speech to the ruling Communist Party’s national congress on Thursday, China’s outgoing President Hu Jintao confirmed that financial reforms would be high on the government’s agenda.

Beijing has already stepped up its commitment to financial reforms this year, with a slew of measures including widening the yuan’s trading band against the U.S. dollar, raising the investment cap for foreign companies in domestic securities firms and increasing bank flexibility in setting rates for deposits and loans.

Economists believe the pace of reforms will quicken in the coming years, with HSBC’S chief China economist Qu Hongbin anticipating a swathe of reforms that will “revolutionize” the country’s financial system.

“There are clear signs that China’s new leaders, who will take power in early 2013, will make speeding up reform top of their policy agenda in the coming years,” said Qu.

China is expected to announce its new line-up of leaders at the end of the national congress next week.

Granting banks more freedom to set lending and deposit rates, growing the bond market and additional steps to make the yuan fully convertible by loosening currency controls further will be the key focus of reforms under the new leadership, say analysts.

“These changes would not only make capital allocation more efficient, boosting the private sector, but also provide the middle class with greater choice about where to put their money so they can earn a higher return and therefore spend more,” Qu said.

These reforms are essential in facilitating China’s rebalancing away from an export-driven to consumption-focused economy, say experts.

The People’s Bank of China began the process of interest rate liberalization in June, giving lenders the flexibility to set interest rates for consumers.

For the first time, the central bank allowed banks to offer depositors interest rates up to 10 percent higher than the benchmark rate and loans at up to 20 percent below the benchmark rate, compared with 10 percent previously.

The reform allows market forces to play a greater role in capital allocation and will help shift the balance of the economy towards consumption as higher bank deposit rates would give households more spending power and higher lending rates would reduce excess investment, Qu said.

Bond Market Growth

Expanding China’s bond market, which is critical for reducing the concentration of financial risk in the banking system, is also expected to be an important goal for policymakers.

Lending by banks represent over 75 percent of total social financing - a broad measure of funds raised in the economy – in mainland China, reflecting a heavy reliance on bank funding. Around 60 percent of the massive stimulus package launched by Beijing in 2009, for example, was funded by bank credit, according to analyst estimates.

China must shift its economy away from an overreliance on bank funding, and create other financing options for corporates, said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura.

“State-owned enterprises have been crowding out the private sector, attaining more bank loans at lower interest rates, and filling up banks’ loan quotas,” said Zhang, adding that further development of the bond market would help level the playing field for corporates.

Policymakers have begun to speed up the development of the bond market, introducing pilot programs for municipal and high-yield bonds.

Last year, Beijing selected four local governments to begin issuing bonds in order to raise revenue. In June, China began a program allowing smaller companies to sell high-yield bonds through private placements.

Corporate bond issuance has also been on the rise. Bond issuance was up about 60 percent by volume in the first half from a year earlier.

“We expect the expansion of municipal and corporate bonds to double the size of the domestic bond markets in the coming five years,” Qu said.

Nicholas Consonery, China analyst at Euroasia Group agrees that the domestic debt market is poised for rapid expansion, judging by the “impressive growth in that market over the past couple of years.”

Greater Yuan Freedom

Currency strategists say the government will continue moving towards greater flexibility in the yuan.

“There are more and more moves to full convertibility of the yuan, for instance the widening of the renminbi trading band this year, was one of those steps,” said Hamish Pepper FX Strategist at Barclays. “Eventually we will see the band widen further, there’s a desire from the Chinese authorities to see greater two-way volatility in dollar-yuan.”

In April, China widened the trading band of the yuan, allowing it to rise or fall 1 percent from its mid-point, from a previous limit of 0.5 percent – marking a shift towards a more market-oriented regime.

The need for a fully convertible currency is building, added Pepper, as the global use of the yuan as a trade settlement currency rises. The renminbi represented 9 percent of total trade in 2011.

China’s policy on the yuan - which was pegged to the U.S. dollar until 2005 - has been criticized by U.S. politicians, who have accused Beijing of maintaining an artificially low currency to boost exports.

However, the pace of yuan appreciation has picked up and the currency has risen almost 2 percent against the dollar since September -helped by the latest round of monetary easing by global central banks.

Ten years down the road and China’s financial sector will look very different as a result of the expected slew of reforms, said Kumar Palghat, managing director at Kapstream Capital.

“Lots of things can happen in the next 10 years, there is a high possibility they could free up the currency, if they free up the currency then does it become a reserve currency? If the currency is fully convertible, how big does the bond and equity market become? This is massive for us,” Palghat said.


关键字: 中国经济 金融行业 人民币
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